Who are the Bad Guys?

If we're talking about international diplomacy, the answer is "Everyone who isn't you".



You can hardly fail to have noticed that very soon (perhaps even by this time tomorrow) the second Gulf War will be kicking off. It's an eagerly awaited rematch that will pit the nation ruled by an unelected man who shows flagrant disregard for the rule of law and acts in the interests of whatever will line his and his backers' pockets instead of the people he supposedly serves, against Iraq.

Okay, so I'm anti war. That in itself should not be a surprise. It seems that everybody and their mother is queuing up to give reasons why the war shouldn't happen. Not least among the anti-war voices is that of France. They and the US/UK pro-war camp have indulged themselves in all manner of name calling and bitchslapping since it has become clear that the one will oppose the other, come what may. And I don't know about you, but it instills me with confidence to know that the most powerful single nation in the world is ruled by people who react to somebody disagreeing with them by calling them "Cheese eating surrender monkeys" and declaring them as the biggest threat to world peace other than Iraq itself. Good to know that calm, rational heads are doing the thinking in American government.

Actually, since I've mentioned that "Threat to world peace" point, I may as well clear something else up. Iraq is not, has never been, and shows no sign of becoming a threat to world peace. It doesn't have any missiles capable of launching nuclear or biological agents (the only ones we definitely know that Iraq has are Anthrax and perhaps Smallpox. We know about them because the US and UK sold it to them in the first place...) more than 150 miles. Unlike North Korea, which admits to trying to develop Nuclear Weapons, can launch the missiles as far as Japan, and has actually threatened a nuclear attack against America if any sanctions are imposed on it. Iraq is a threat to its neighbours, certainly. However, if we agree that any threat to stability is in the Middle East is a threat to world peace then we are forced to accept that the US and UK are in fact the biggest threat to world peace that we currently face. Iraq is also a threat to it's own people, but seeing as how Saudi Arabia, Israel, Nigeria, the UK in Northern Ireland, and Burma to name but a few are also a threat to their own people, it seems strange how only Iraq are being picked on now.

If, as has been suggested but not proved, Iraq were harbouring Al-Quaida terrorist cells, and that is the reason for the coming war, then I wouldn't want to be in the CIA right now. After all, they trained Osama bin Laden and many of the Mujahdein who became Al-Quaida to fight the Russians in Afghanistan. Of course, as the head of the CIA used to be George Bush Senior then I doubt we'll see any blame being attached to them. Besides, if Dubya threw his Dad into prison for aiding public enemy number 1 then who would tell him what to do?
And if support for terrorism is a prerequisite to being invaded by the US, does that mean we can declare war on them for all the money that was donated to the IRA? Maybe Nicaragua will invade America for supporting its Contra rebels? Or will we find that China will start hostilities with the rest of the world for buying goods from Taiwan, an area that they consider a rogue state?

And seeing as the more simplistic supporters of the coming war usually fall back on their emergency argument of "You must be Saddam's best friend if you don't support the war" at this point (they're very predictable in that respect; it's like their brains have some sort of glass case with "In case argument is rebutted, break down and bleat the following refrain..."), then let me make something else clear. Saddam Hussein and the Ba'ath regime in Iraq should be viewed with the same distaste as one would reserve for being vomited on by a tramp that has drunk more than his usual share of meths. Getting rid of him would be a wonderful thing. Doing it without bombing and murdering thousands of innocent people would be better still. We're always boasting about our special forces. Why not use them? An assassin's bullet right now would save a lot of unnecessary carnage later. And it would give the Iraqi people a chance to have a say in their own destiny rather than having one dictator replaced with another who is more to America's liking.

So, realistically, and taking all the various factors into consideration, has anyone come up with a reason for this war, and a one that stands up to scrutiny, that doesn't involve oil? I mean lets be honest here, the US economy is in thrall to oil. To the extent that they basically have to kowtow to Saudi Arabia and prop up an increasingly unpopular regime in order to guarantee their supply. To the extent that the government are prepared to force wildly unpopular measures such as drilling in the Alaskan National Park for oil on their people? A successful war would guarantee cheap oil supplies for the next 20 or so years.

Okay, so it's about the oil. Lets forget for a moment the standard pro-war rebuttal ("It's not about oil!!" 'So, what is it about?' "Ummm...dunno, but it's not oil!") of that argument and accept it as the most plausible of the reasons for this war (I can't bring myself to believe that Dubya is about to send men and women to their deaths in order to get revenge for an Iraqi assassination attempt on his Dad about 10 years ago...). The thing is, if we apply that rule to the US (and by 'that rule' I mean "Where is the money"; if you can find where the money is involved in any given situation then you have invariably found the motivation for the coming event) then we should also apply it across the board. After all, the US and UK are not the only nations who's leaders are motivated more by profit than peace.

And so the first place to look when we're being evenhanded is at the opposition to the war. Obviously I can't pretend to know the motivations of everyone opposed to what is going to happen. So we have to look at the countries predominantly opposed. They are Russia, Germany, and France. Are they opposing the US out of a sense of duty to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights? Were they aghast at the news that American soldiers have beaten 2 Al-Quaida suspects to death in Guantanamo Bay since their capture in Afghanistan? Will these 3 nations demand that Dubya and Blair face war crimes trials if they start a war without UN backing? Does anyone think I would have written this many questions if the answer to any of them had been yes?

Both Russia and France currently have very favourable oil deals with Iraq. These deals will quite probably get torn up once Hussein is toppled, and the two nations don't want to lose their oil. Hence, they oppose the coming war. Germany's opposition stems more from domestic reasons. The chancellor, Gerhardt Schroeder, was facing the prospect of defeat in his country’s elections. One "I oppose war at all costs, me. Go on; vote for me again!" speech later, and Schroeder had the backing of Germany's Green party, and so was able to form a coalition to stay in government.

I think what I'm trying to say here is that, when it comes to world diplomacy and shabby situations like this one, there is no "good" and "bad" guy. Diplomacy is just one country fucking another one. Sometimes it's all done rather nicely, with romantic meals and flowers and sweet nothings. Other times it's thrust up the arse with no Vaseline and little warning. But it's always the same theme; one side wants what the other side has. France and Russia getting upset about international law? They must have been rolling in the aisles in Rwanda and Chechnya when they heard that one!

Iraq is now facing the choice between being gently screwed by France and Russia, or roughly screwed by the UK and the US. Either way, both sides are destabilising and destroying the UN for reasons of pure self-interest. When the League of Nations went down in the 30's, world war followed. Some will tell you that it doesn't matter, that the UN is already as good as dead, that the League of Nations didn't matter much in the first place. These are the same self important, blinkered, and cheerfully non-thinking mindmesses that didn't see why there was a problem with the League allowing Japan and Germany to invade whatever nations they saw fit to conquer. The only problem with my desire to say "I told you so" to them is that we will have to live through interesting times in order for me to do so.
As with the last war, can we just get this one over with please?