The day after the day before

Today there are numerous questions that remain unanswered. I could write all day about them but I shall limit myself to a few that are pertinent to that which I have wrote about previously. Firstly, what does this mean for the Palestinian people? Secondly, what does this mean for Dubya? Finally, what does this mean for the world and for democracy?

I scribbled something down yesterday about how I hoped that the reports of a Palestinian group that claimed responsibility for the atrocity were false. Israel hasn't exactly been condemned by the world at large for it brutal treatment of the Palestinians. If they were responsible for this, the worst terrorist act in world history, then there would probably be a plaque put up in the remnants of the West Bank to thank the Israeli army for wiping the Palestinians of the face of the earth. Thankfully, it would appear that they are not directly responsible. Unfortunately I have a sinking feeling that it no longer matters whether they were directly responsible or not. Today 7 Palestinians have been murdered by Israeli troops hunting for terror suspects. Legitimate enough one may think, especially in the light of yesterday’s horror. One of those killed was an 11-year-old girl. The Israeli's used tanks to shell the West Bank. I had no idea it was possible to interrogate suspects via tank shells but apparently (according to Israel) it is.

The death of at least 1 innocent person pales when compared to yesterday, but this is only the beginning. The rhetoric is already being stepped up as Israel states that ``The world will not be as patient now as it was before to the terror attacks conducted and supported by the Palestinian Authority.'' What a wonderful euphemism for "You're at our mercy now, and there is no help on the way." Ehud Barak said as much during an interview last night, and moreover he encouraged America to take out it's vengeance on Iran, Iraq, Syria, Libya...anyone whom Israel has appalling relations with because of it's treatment of Palestinians in fact.

Even worse for them is their own reaction to the news. By now most people will have seen the jubilation along the West Bank at the news of the terrorism. This was the stupid reaction of a desperate people. All they had received from America was condemnation of their retaliation against Israel. America has always backed Israel itself to the hilt. As far as they were concerned, the Americans were having the terror suffered daily by the Palestinians brought to their doorstep. That is my objective viewpoint. I fully understand that, if I were an American, I would not be so objective. Whenever any international voice even looks like being raised in sympathy to the Palestinians they will be reminded of the dancing in the streets at the news of such horror. Although they may not have had anything at all to do with yesterday's attack they have surely doomed themselves to become targets of retaliation for it whether by Israel or America.

Next one must examine Dubya and America in general. My feelings about him are well known. He is still pretty much untested and here he is, faced with the biggest crisis since Pearl Harbour. Is he up to the challenge? Well he has very conservative minded advisors, and as my own opinion of his own leadership abilities is low, I'm working on the assumption that the decisions are going to be coming from Dick Cheney, Colin Powell et al. In general his advisors are a hawkish lot and this was exemplified when they pushed for a hard line against China when the spy plane crashed there.

This event gives Dubya the opportunity to seal his place in World History forever. He could be the President who Ended the Threat of World Terror. Or he could be The President who Started the Third World War. I don't think I'm being over-paranoid by saying that, but more of that later.

As a side issue, this cataclysm may see the end of the Son of Star Wars Defence Shield. That defence system is untried, has failed in all tests so far, and in any case wouldn't have stopped any part of yesterday’s horror. With luck, the money that they will save on that will go on a more rational defence system; lots more highly trained people. America has shown an over-reliance on gadgetry when it comes to military and intelligence matters. Yesterday has proven that, as yet, there is no substitute for trained personnel.

And what of the American people? I can't say for certain of course, but by now the shock and anguish at yesterday's events will be giving way to anger. I've already said what I had to say about that particular emotion and on a national scale it will be a truly frightening sight. And when the anger of a nation as powerful as America has to be vented by a leader as inept as Dubya then the world really should tremble. People will want vengeance (though I am heartened by some of the editorials in today's US papers. Many call on people to remember that by bombing Afghanistan to rubble they would be committing an atrocity against innocent people just as the terrorists did yesterday) and the cold satisfaction of knowing that those who did this are hurting as much as they are. The word "War" has been used more than once to describe how America will react to this. I said repeatedly yesterday that America has a clear policy on dealing with attacks on American Territory with weapons of Mass Destruction. A low yield nuclear weapon being fired at the approximate location of Osama Bin Laden (if it is indeed he behind this) is by no means out of the question (which is probably why Joanne's colleague thought I'd called about the end of the world yesterday...). After all, Afghanistan is sparsely populated, and Dubya has already said that America will make no differentiation between those who did this and those who shelter them.

This leads rather nicely on to the implications for the rest of the world. Simply put, the world is has changed for good. The very fabric of world politics is no longer the same, be it with the western world's relations with the Middle East, or ease of International Air Travel, make no mistake that things have changed. There seems to be a palpable sense of the world holding it's breath whilst the full horror of yesterday's attack sinks in. We'll hold our breath still longer whilst America considers it's response against an intangible enemy. There are those who say that America will be fully justified in turning Iraq and Afghanistan into nuclear polished glass. Those who do say that are no different to the fanatics who planned yesterday's terrorist action because they too had absolutely no thought as to the deaths of innocent people. By the same token, anyone who would condemn America for its desire for vengeance are equally as unrealistic. For all our European smugness about disasters in America (by which I mean the undercurrent of feeling that says "Now you know what it's like to feel fear of terrorism. Now perhaps you'll stop funding our terrorists".) we should understand the very real need for a visible act of vengeance.We should perhaps prepare ourselves for a response that will further change world history. I'm hung up on the fear of nuclear weapons. That is my particular nightmare and has been for over 15 years (although if I were the sort of person who puts any stock in prophecy I would say this; I've had nightmares about nuclear war almost every night since I was about 8 or 9. I hadn't had a full night’s sleep since I was at high school because of this. On Monday night I slept an undisturbed and dreamless sleep. Maybe I should start claiming to be Nostradamus or something....).

However, the US military has got all manner of new and scary toys that they can deploy. As of yesterday, all bets are off. We can no longer take it for granted that the tomorrow will be about as peaceful as today. That is not to say that an extraordinary act of retaliation is inevitable, but it is probable, and I think we'd all do well to remember that.